Accounting for skill in trend, variability, and autocorrelation facilitates better multi-model projections: application to the AMOC and temperature time series

Projections accounting for model trend and variability skill

Roman Olson1,2,3, Soon-Il An1,*, Yanan Fan4 and Jason P. Evans5

1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea

2Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea

3Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea

4School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia

5Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre for Excellence in Climate Extremes, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia

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Accounting for skill in trend, variability, and autocorrelation facilitates better multi-model projections